Preamble indefensible rant:
It really breaks my heart to see all the hysterical hand-waving and hair pulling over the latest psychotic war-mongering on the part of the neocon reality-priesthood. I would have hoped more people would be smarter than to fall for the same old trick again and again. If you can be induced into reacting, rebelling, opposing or railing away incoherently against someone else’s agenda, then you’ve pretty much eliminated the possibility of making any progress on your own agenda.
Contrary to what you might think, digging in and defining oneself in adversarial stance to anything else makes you an accessory to their plans, not an obstacle. Arguing against something only lends it credibility, rather than leaving it to rise and fall on it’s own merits as the crazy blood thirsty bullshit that it is. It’s like arguing against ethnic cleansing: do we needto argue against ethnic cleansing? Do we really want to give the maniacs who spout that kind of shit any more credibility by standing across the line from them? No fucking way. They’ll just suck you into their hellworld of mass murder and make you the token resistance in it. Fuck them and fuck their fantasies. Envision something positive and make them fight you for a change. They’re cowards and they’ll lose in the end. Guaranteed.
The sad fact is, very few of us are willing to fight for anything except the the right to be oblivious to the world, letting someone else handle it, and not having to make a real sacrifice for your convictions. Provided you happen to have any, and not just the usual list of liberal aversions and sentimental delusions. If you’re so scared of nuclear war then get busy building a better alternative, because not doing so only opts for hell on earth because you’re too gutless to come up with some new ideas. End of rant.
Part the first: A Gun on the Table has to Go Off
Let’s play the timeline game shall we? I realise it’s kind of unfair to bitch everyone out for not making real choices when the playing field seems so unclear. It’s like a twelve car pileup of catastrophic changes in the making out there, and even if you don’t buy into them uncritically, it’s obviously helpful to know which way the wind is blowing.
My thinking is that determining the outcome of specific events is pretty hard, but knowing the sweep of trends is rather easy. In that vein, my first section deals with the next five years, or so. There are so many chaotic processes going on that there’s no way of knowing what order or manner they will play out, but you can be pretty sure where we’ll be overall by the time they all do. The big three strands, all intertwined of course, are global financial crises, geopolitics, and governmental legitimacy.
For at least the last several decades, the dominant power has had within it a strand of lawlessness, a kind of oligarchical consensus that implements it’s will through an old boy network of gangsters, drug runners, ideological moles, and spooks. The true conceptual core is simply greed, and fear of losing vast fortunes and privilege to the whims of the herd. This used to have it’s public face as the fear of communism, but now manifests as a general contempt for education and raising living standards for the poor and underprivileged everywhere. The problem with this style is that it depends for it’s survival on the legitimacy of the system it parisitises. if the general public were to catch on that the game is rigged and totally corrupt, the backroom players stand to lose everything. Unfortunately, the system they exploit is founded on several instabilities that are just now coming to a head. In order to avert this eventual restructuring crsis, the oligarchs must recourse to ever more blatant displays of string pulling to keep the game going. It’s not that elections were never fixed before, or that markets were never manipulated before, or terrorism was never state-sponsored false flag provocation before. It’s simply that it’s never been used as extensively and as desperately as it has been now. Which ought to be a sign that that things are coming unglued at record speed.
The only reason that george can go on tv and make one ridiculous pronouncement after another and get away with it is not that we’re stupid and complacent, and apathetic. It’s simply the moment in time where the crooked players are forced to cheat blatantly and you sit there in shock not wanting to believe that that’s what’s been going on all along. But that’s exactly what it’s always been. And that shock is not going to last much longer. Eventually this overreach of manipulation and illegal influence will result in the de-legitimation of (at the very least) the neocon regime, but more likely the self destruction of the republican party, and possibly even the general recasting of the political landscape in the united states altogether, not necessarily for the better, either. It largely depends on how badly the mid terms gut the republican position, and secondarily on how soon the economy goes massively pear shaped. And if neither of those does it, simply three more years of this shit in general will serve to destroy the status quo once and for all.
Which brings us to the war question: believe it or not, Iran’s current leadership probably does want a war and probably does realise it can’t win. Leaving aside neocon spin, these are legitimate jihadist fanatics, not fantasy projections to justify struassian dialectics, or business-minded secular dictators like saddam, and that probably explains the reticence of some to attack them outright, because once you start that war, you’re not fighting poor starving insurgents in fallujah who hide in the basement, and hate americans becuase you dropped a cluster bomb on their aunt and uncle. You’re fighting religious fanatics who truly want to kill and die for allah. Sad to say it, but sometimes the stereotype is true. Iran probably wants this war because as bad as they will come out of it, the united states and israel will come away so much worse it’s not even funny. Their economies will be wrecked, their militaries stretched to breaking point, their security situations permanently turned to dust and ashes. Meanwhile these fanatics believe they’ll be hanging in paradise, having launched islam back to it’s proper position of glory. The western powers manufactured islamic fundamentalism, fed it , and turned it loose. And now here it is.
The sophisticated neocon thinker believes that civilisation needs some kind of underlying moral narrative to prevent terminal stagnation. This then justifies deceit and corruption in the name of preventing us poor fuddles from sinking into a morass of self satisfied socialist apathy. Hence the obsession with manufactured enemies, and simplistic expainations for complex grievances.
This is just the latest face on the totalitarian backlash that haunted the 20th century front to back. The 20th was probably the most kneejerk retrograde century there ever was, in terms of paranoid recoil from political and philosophical forward motion. History has been slow, but always forward moving. It’s not very often you see the level of backsliding we’ve had in the last 60 years or so. Being born in it makes it hard to see that so much of the last hundred years was about severe disillusionment with the progressive growth of education, technology and liberalism. In many ways it’s been the resurgence of provincialism, tribalism, xenophobia and race hatred on a massive scale. Most of what we think of as modern, or post modern thinking was totally worked out by the 1930’s. Dada, Jazz, Existentialism, Quantum Physics, and certainly by the 1950’s there wasn’t much left to do. But then things ground to a halt, and haven’t really moved since. It’s important to recognise our era as a departure from the general trend of history, so that when that trend reestablishes itself, you understand why.
So don’t rely on common sense and tact to head this shit off, because it aint going to happen. Everybody wants this war, for entirely different stupid reasons, and sooner or later they’re going to get it.
When it does go down, you’ll probably get a general war in the middle east both in terms of anti-infidel jihad, and sectarian muslim civil war which will probably drag in the whole world after a few months, or maybe a couple years at the most, once it becomes clear that stabilising the middle east is only thing that will prevent that global economy from dissolving entirely.
From the perspective of economics there’s not a whole lot you can do to change the fact that your energy supply has peaked, and the change over to anything else will take a decade at the least. Similarly you can’t do much to change that most of the money out there is worthless paper holding you hostage to a world power that is rapidly proving itself totally untrustworthy and and little more than the global bully.
Again, the chaos we see now is simply the confusion as everyone tries to pretend it isn’t happening. but that can’t last much longer. Sooner or later a real decision is going to have be made, by everyone. Once it’s understood that there’s isn’t going to be any end of the world, just a bigger deeper hole to climb out of.
So in summary, by 2011, you’ve got ongoing and expanding world war, fueled by the dissolution of the world economy probably in favour of permanent war footing combined with currency backed by confiscated precious metals. The only thing holding any of this in check is probably the fact that popular backlash will eventually destroy the war effort for the united states, along with the parties that support it. It doesn’t mean american troops won’t be there, but simply that it will be an ongoing morass with no clear victory conditions, only the fantasy of restoring stability, and no political will to win, and no stomach to get out, for fear of making hard times even worse. Basically iraq, but everywhere it can go, all at the same time.
It won’t be about high minded platitudes anymore. It’ll be about feeding your kids and paying for parents medical care. This phase ends when it becomes clear that the old ideas have exhausted themselves, politically and economically. Or more accurate, that they have been exhausted for the last several decades and haven’t had the guts to admit it. It will be manifestly obvious that, as Marshall Mcluhan said, the owners of society have no belief in it, and haven’t for a long time.
and that’s when the real scary shit kicks in.
next: terror and transhumanism